Discrepancy Analysis of State Sequences

In this article we define a methodological framework for analyzing the relationship between state sequences and covariates. Inspired by the ANOVA principles, our approach looks at how the covariates explain the discrepancy of the sequences. We use the pairwise dissimilarities between sequences to determine the discrepancy which makes it then possible to develop a series of statistical-significancebased analysis tools. We introduce generalized simple and multi-factor discrepancy-based methods to test for differences between groups, a pseudo R2 for measuring the strength of sequence–covariate associations, a generalized Levene statistic for testing differences in the within-group discrepancies, as well as tools and plots for studying the evolution of the differences along the timeframe and a regression tree method for discovering the most significant discriminant covariates and their interactions. In addition, we extend all methods to account for case weights. The scope of the proposed methodological framework is illustrated using a real-world sequence dataset.